The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also ...

Many are concerned that a deeply inverted yield curve signals a recession. When we look at the current yield curve, we see an opportunity to add exposure to fixed income. The most direct implication ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

When it comes to the U.S. economy, an inverted yield curve is like the monster under the bed: It’s always lurking, but it doesn’t always come out. Recently it has, however, which could be an early ...

Explore the yield curve's significance in predicting interest rates, inflation, and economic trends for informed investment ...

You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but ...

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 09: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 09, 2023 in New York City. The stock market closed with mixed results ...

The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

An inverted yield curve, historically a precursor to economic downturns, suggests short-term borrowing costs for banks could soon outpace returns from long-term loans, squeezing profit margins, writes ...

Here’s a short presentation by Aswath Damodaran on the recent inverted yield curve and whether there is a signal in the noise. He writes: On December 4, 2018, the yield on a 5-year US treasury dropped ...